Service Plays Sunday 10/5/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SCOTT FERRALL

NFL Week Five Bonus Plays

BALTIMORE +3 from Tennessee--Ravens show the Titans who's boss. Tenn isn't going to the Super Bowl like everyone is thinking. I like Flacco and that Baltimore defense, particularly at home

CAROLINA -9.5 to Kansas City--The Panthers aren't going to let Larry Johnson go off for 198 like he did last week against Denver in KC. The Chiefs still blow and will lay down in Charlotte--Steve Smith has a big game in this one

PHILLY -5.5 to Washington--The Eagles bounce back from the loss at Soldier Field and work over the Skins, who everyone will be pouncing on after they beat Dallas in Big D. They aren't winning two straight on the road. The Eagles D is the difference in this game

DENVER -3 to Tampa--The Bucs have been pretty tough, but not in the thin air at Mile High. Cutler has a field day with Marshall and Royal

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dr. Bob
BALTIMORE 17 Tennessee (-2.5) 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll still lean with Baltimore, however, based on a 122-54-8 ATS statistical indicator and a 74-32-3 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests the Ravens are the type of team that should cover as a home underdog.


Atlanta 0 GREEN BAY (pick) 0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I have a possible Best Bet on this game, but there is currently no line. Check back on Friday or Saturday (after the line goes up) for that analysis.


Chicago (-3.5) 26 DETROIT 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
My ratings favor Chicago by 9 ½ points in this game and the line value favoring Chicago is more significant than the favorable situation applying to Detroit.


CAROLINA (-9.5) 27 Kansas City 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean with Carolina based on the line value even though the technical analysis slightly favors Kansas City.


HOUSTON 24 Indianapolis (-3.0) 23
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean with the Texans plus the points.


San Diego (-6.5) 27 MIAMI 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
This game is tough to call with the line value favoring San Diego and the technical analysis favoring Miami.


PHILADELPHIA (-6.0) 21 Washington 12
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll favor Philly to cover based on that situation despite the negative line value.


NY GIANTS (-7.0) 26 Seattle 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean with the Giants.


DENVER (-3.0) 27 Tampa Bay 26
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean with Tampa Bay plus the points.



New England (-3.5) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here



DALLAS (-17.0) 33 Cincinnati 13
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
The Cowboys may not be in a sympathetic mood for the winless Bengals after getting upset by the Redskins last week and my math model favors Dallas by 20 points in this game.


ARIZONA (-1.0) 23 Buffalo 19
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean with Arizona to hand the Bills their first loss.


JACKSONVILLE (-4.0) 20 Pittsburgh 17
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-05 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean slightly with Pittsburgh even though the technical analysis strongly favors Jacksonville.


NEW ORLEANS (-3.0) 27 Minnesota 23
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-06 - Stats Matchup
I’ll lean slightly with New Orleans.


Rotation #424 San Francisco (+3 1/2) 3-Stars at +3 (-115 odds or better) or more and 2-Stars from +3 (-120 or worse) to +1.

The math model is included this week and the math only officially applies to games in which both teams have played at least 4 games each. The chance of covering listed in the math refers to the chance based solely on the math and does not include any situational analysis. To read my opinion on each game you should consult my free analysis section on the site.

3 Star Selection
*** SAN FRANCISCO 23 New England (-3.5) 17
01:15 PM Pacific, 05-Oct-08
I’ll take San Francisco in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars from +3 (-120 odds or worse) to +1.

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WUNDERDOG

Game: Buffalo at Arizona (Sunday 10/05 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 44.5 -110
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We were on the OVER last week in the Cardinals game vs. the Jets and they exceeded the total - twice! One look at Arizona last week shows something of interest. They turned the ball over seven times meaning they had seven possessions interupted, but still manged 35 points! That is hard to ignore, especially playing at home. Kurt Warner is a savvy veteran, and I would expect he gets redemption here, and moves the offense as he has with less mistakes. The Bills have turned very offensive behind a developing Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch and WR Lee Evans. Arizona has a QB rating against their defense of 102.4, so look for the pass happy Bills to chew up yardage just like the Favre and the Jets did last week. The Cards, after putting up 350 yards or more in their previous game, have been an astounding 42-17 to the OVER in their next game. They are also 16-6 OVER as an underdog the past three seasons. This one should have plenty of scoring and again go OVER.
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[ymmit2nd]

The Experts Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: I have isolated a Selection today that will beat the line by at least TWO TD'S! You can get our ULTIMATE EXPERTS NFL PLAY OF THE MONTH today for just $25 and you will be a winner or you will not be charged! WE ARE ON FIRE as we ar currently on a 34-15 RUN! ARE YOU?!? 10/4/2008

ULTIMATE EXPERTS NFL PLAY OF THE MONTH
426 Arizona -1 4:15 EST

 

[ymmit2nd]

The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: This will be the HAMMER'S LARGEST NFL FOOTBALL WAGER of the season. It's yours RIGHT HERE - RIGHT NOW guaranteed to bring home the GREEN BACKS or you don't pay! You can get the Hammers "Private Investors Club" NFL GAME OF THE YEAR right now for just $35 - GUARANTEED! The P.I.C. Selections go to the Hammers private members only and Exclusive to YouWinNow.com. 10/4/2008

"Private Investors Club" NFL GAME OF THE YEAR
430 Jacksonville -4 8:15 EST

 

[ymmit2nd]

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Jack Clayton is on an 11-4 run in the NFL. He steps up on Sunday with another winning day, including his top play here, a 5-Star Chalk Game of the Month! Get aboard the red-hot bandwagon and pay ONLY when it covers! 10/4/2008

5* Chargers at Dolphins: I'm not sold that the Dolphins have turned things around after one stunning blowout win at New England. This is still a young, rebuilding team with a lot of holes and inexperience. The Chargers were not impressed with the way they beat New England, with trick plays and overshifts on the offensive line. "Gimmicky," cornerback Quentin Jammer said. The Chargers have spent time each day this week preparing to face the Miami Dolphins and their highly successful version of the single-wing offense. The Dolphins call it the "Wildcat" offense, and they scored four touchdowns in six snaps against the Patriots. The key in this game is the Chargers versatile, wide open offense against a weak Miami 'D'. This offense is No. 8 in the NFL and scoring a ton of points through the air and the ground. The Chargers are 13-4 SU/ATS as a favorite under Norv Turner. Miami doesn't have strong wideouts and and QB Chad Pennington has just 2 TDs, one pick in 3 games. They won at New England with the ground game, but the Chargers have a speedy secondary and can focus all their defensive effort in stopping the run and blitzing, something they did a lot of in the second half last week at Oakland. The Dolphins are 1-7 SU/ATS their last 8 in Miami. Play the Chargers.

 

[ymmit2nd]

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 05, 2008
$20.00 Guaranteed: There's a soft total that jumps off of Sunday's NFL card, when the oddsmakers overlooked, focusing too much on last season's stats. Get the inside take on this soft NFL total, and pay ONLY when it sails "over"! 10/4/2008

3* Chargers/Dolphins over: Both defenses are ranked in the bottom half of the NFL, with the Chargers at 28th. The defense gave up 26 points to Carolina and 39 at Denver. At least the offense is loaded, ranked 8th in the NFL, with a great offensive line, plus QB Philip Rivers has 10 TDs and 4 picks, alongside RBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles. They toasted the Jets in a 48-29 rout. Miami has defensive deficiencies that can be exploited by an good offensive mind like Norv Turner. Miami's offense is much better this season, with a stronger offensive line, a capable, veteran QB in Chad Pennington, plus RB Ronnie Brown. The Dolphins are 17th in total defense with a very young unit. Look for a lot of scoring, play the Chargers/Dolphins over the total

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WILD BILL

Titans -2 1/2 (5 units)
Chiefs +9 1/2 (5 units)
Giants -7 (5 units)
Over 43 1/2 Seattle-Giants (5 units)
Patriots -3 (5 units)
Over 44 Bengals-Cowboys (5 units)
Steelers +3 1/2 (5 units)
Saints -3 (5 units)

 

[ymmit2nd]

Handicapper: The Prez
League: NFL
Event: Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys on 10/05/2008 at 1:15PM
Condition: Over
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion:
8* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati at Dallas

Cowboys score at least 35 points Sunday making this a Big Game OVER the TOTAL play.

8 UNIT Play on the OVER

 

[ymmit2nd]

Handicapper: Jimmy Sirody
League: NFL
Event: Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles on 10/05/2008 at 10:00AM
Condition: Under
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: Philadelphia and Washington have made it a habit of going under, turning the trick in 20 of the past 31 meetings. The trend that grabbed my attention is the one that reveals the Skins going under in 19 of 23 games on the road versus good defensive teams--allowing less than 285 yards per game since '92. The Eagles have slipped under in 12 of 15 as favorites of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 and in 24 of their last 31 at home in October.

 

[ymmit2nd]

Vernon Croy's **20 Unit NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK** (76% Overall this NFL Season)
Ungraded
Handicapper: Vernon Croy
League: NFL
Event: New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers on 10/05/2008 at 1:15PM
Condition: Under
Grade: Ungraded
Promotion: 20 Units, Take the Under, This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and both of these teams are solid defensively. New England's defense has allowed just 19.3 ppg this season and 10 points in their only road game while the 49ers defense has allowed just 262.5 ypg at home this season and 18 ppg. The O/U is 1-5 for the 49ers in their last 6 games as a home dog of 3 points or less and the Patriots offense has struggled without Tom Brady this season averaging just 16.3 ppg. The O/U is 1-5 for the 49ers in their last 6 home games and their offense will not be able to get much done against the Patriots veteran defense. The O/U is 5-11 for the Patriots in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less and I look for an offensive struggle by both of these teams Sunday afternoon. Take the Under as my NFL Total of the Week and make sure you get on my NFL Smash of the Year which I have winning hands down Sunday as my 76% season run continues.

 

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 10/05/08 - 4:05 PMStephen Nover | NFL Total
double-dime bet422 DEN / 421 TAM Over 48.0 BetUS
Analysis:
Buccaneers-Broncos Over 48

Analysis: The Denver Broncos have gone 'over' in all four of their matchups this season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos can't stop anybody, allowing an average of 34.3 points in their last three games, while averaging nearly 34 points.

The Broncos have one of the worst defensive fronts in the NFL. Their linebackers are below average, too. In addition, cornerback Dre Bly has slowed up considerably. Tampa Bay can attack this. The Buccaneers don't have great skill position players, but they have a very sharp offensive-minded coach in Jon Gruden. He'll have veteran Brian Griese probe Denver's many weak spots. Earnest Graham is an underrated running back and veteran Warrick Dunn can be effective, too, versus this defense. The Buccaneers have gone 'over' in eight of their last 10 games.

Tampa Bay's defense is good, but small. It's not a dominant unit. Jay Cutler certainly can pass on the Buccaneers. Brandon Marshall may be the best wide receiver in the AFC right now. Denver has gone 'over' in 14 of its past 17 home games. The Broncos also have gone 'over' 81 percent of the time during their last 27 games on grass. The Broncos also are 11-1 to the 'over' following a loss.

 

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 10/05/08 - 8:15 PMJeff Bonds | NFL Side
double-dime bet430 JAC -4.0 (-110) BetUS vs 429 PIT
Analysis:
Jacksonville Jaguars -4 at Bookmaker.com



This game is an absolute gift at this price - considering that Jacksonville has been pretty much the only NFL team to enjoy success against Pittsburgh over the past 10 years.



It's even more of a gift considering that Pittsburgh is coming off TWO highly physical games in back-to-back weeks (Philadelphia/Baltimore)....so physical - that both of its top running backs are banged up (one for the year).



This means Ben Roethlisberger is going to have to throw behind an offensive line that - to put it lightly - doesn't have a prayer this Sunday with the recent injury to guard Kendall Simmons.



When Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has to throw the ball more than 20 times a game - the Steelers are a terrible 1-7 ATS in the last eight situations.



Jacksonville picks up a BIG VICTORY to keep them from going under .500 (a huge factor in the NFL) and moves the Pittsburgh Steelers to 0-15 ATS in their last 15 road defeats. They've failed to cover the previous 14 by more than 11 points!

 

[ymmit2nd]

Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet414 PHI -6.0 (-110) BetUS vs 413 WAS
Analysis: **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to come

Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet410 MIA 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 409 SDC
Analysis:
**2 UNIT PLAY** This line is at +7 at Bodog so I would advise you to get it while you can. Analysis to come.



Sun, 10/05/08 - 1:00 PMTommy Rider | NFL Side
double-dime bet405 IND -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 406 HOU
Analysis: **2 UNIT PLAY** Analysis to come

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pointwise Phone Plays

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Philadelphia
Minnesota
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Asa 5*
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Arizona Cards
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[ymmit2nd]

Al Demarco 25 Dimer
Denver Broncos -3

 

[melch]

<center><b>MEL'S NFL PICKS</b></center>

CHICAGO -3.5 over Detroit
For the first time this season I've seen a line I can't make sense of. Detroit's three games, all losses, have been against a soft schedule and they haven't lost by less than 13 points, and haven't come any closer than 13 of covering the spread. The Lions are off an early bye week which usually doesn't help teams that get off to a bad start. They did play competitive football in their one home game against Green Bay, but blew a fourth quarter lead. Detroit's defense has been a disaster, allowing 5.6 yards per rush and an opponent's QB rating of 118. Amazingly, those three games were all against first year starting QB's. If the Lions are going to routinely have their opponent's QB put up Hall Of Fame numbers they have zero chance. Take Chicago at whatever the going price is. I put an extra unit on this one.

CAROLINA -9.5 over Kansas City
KC had lost 12 games in a row until last week's home win over Denver. They've lost 6 straight road games, and their most recent road loss was 14-38 at Atlanta. Last week Carolina beat that same Atlanta team 24-9. The Chiefs passing game was weak last year, but has dropped to 31st in my numbers this year, and that's been against a soft schedule. Carolina has the best pass defense KC will have faced. The Panthers have played a tough schedule, put up solid passing numbers against four good pass defenses, and should do well against a KC pass defense that has been below average. KC has also been weak against the run, giving up 5.3 per attempt. Carolina has played well in their two home wins and should take this by double digits.

SAN FRANCISCO +3 over New England
New England had feasted on NFC teams, winning 12 straight prior to their Super Bowl loss. This week they make one of their rare West Coast appearances. Although the Pats are 2-1, their numbers don't look like the same team that won all 16 regular season games in '07. The Pats scored 34 points or more 11 times last year. This year they have scored, 17, 19 and 13, in games against, KC, NY Jets and Miami. Diminished offense should be expected with Tom Brady out for the season, but their defensive numbers have fallen off as well. Last year my numbers had them allowing an opponent's QB rating of 62; so far this year it's 92. In fact, the Patriots defensive unit may be showing signs of age. Like New England, SF has faced a below average schedule thus far. Their defense is solid again this year, and their offense has improved under Mike Martz. J.T. O'Sullivan has put up better numbers than Alex Smith ever did. He has taken too many sacks as a result of holding on to the ball too long, but he has made plays. SF has been a weak red zone team over the years, and this year's Niners have yet to show they can finish drives, but I'll take them as a work in progress here. I don't think the Pats will stop Frank Gore, and I don't think Belichick will hatch a scheme that will be effective against O'Sullivan. The fear factor is gone for the Patriots. Last year they scored more than 4 TD's from scrimmage per game; this year only 4 TD's in three games. The 49ers have the home field and the better QB, while NE has the experience. The Niners are averaging 7 points a game more than the Pats, and are the pick here. I'm giving out the play at +3, but this could move to +3.5 closer to game time.

 

[ymmit2nd]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

NFL

5* BEST BET
New England over San Fran by 15
Roll the clock back to the first week of the season and our best guess is
the line on this game would have seen the Patriots installed as doubledigit
favorites. Today, with Tom Brady on the sidelines and the Niners a
.500 squad, two touchdowns has become a fi eld goal and suddenly this
game becomes attractive. With that we hurry off to our Bill Belichick
databank and fi nd numbers that support our contention. For openers,
Mr. Personality is 22-9 ATS in his NFL head coaching career on the road in
games off a loss, including 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine and 7-0 ATS as a
favorite of less than 7 points. To top it off he’s squared off against teams
from the NFC West Division 13 times and – you guessed it – he’s 13-0 ATS
in those games. Toss in Frisco’s 1-10 ATS mark as a dog off a non-division
game when facing an AFC opponent and you can see why we’re taking a
patriotic approach to this game.


4* BEST BET

Philadelphia over Washington by 16

Life has been pretty much black and white at home (2-0 SU and ATS) and
on the road (0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS) for the Eagles in 2008. More important,
from a handicapping perspective, the Green Birds have been perfect, 4-
0, In The Stats this season. They will apply that notion against a fat-andhappy
bunch of Hogs, fresh off last Sunday’s underdog win as doubledigit
dogs at Dallas. That fi ts like a Michael Jackson glove given the fact
the Skins are 0-5-1 ATS on the road off a Cowboy win while Philly is
10-3-1 ATS in division games off an ATS loss of 7 or more points behind
Andy Reid. Andy is also dandy in games off a SU favorite loss, going 17-8
SU and ATS. Just like Los Lobos, he sees a red door and wants to paint
it black

3* BEST BET

Detroit over Chicago by 7

It’s been said that the best sex a man can have is right after his favorite
football team wins a game. If that’s the case then the Motor City’s been
celibate this season. With Matt Millen no longer guarding the condoms
this may actually be a breakout game for the Lions. It happens much
more often than not to winless teams after a Bye Week. The fact of the
matter is 0-3 or worse division dogs playing with an extra wink are 7-7 SU
and 11-1-1 ATS. Additionally, the Lions are 7-5 SU and 12-0 ATS as division
home dogs against an opponent that allowed 20 or more points in its last
contest. With Lovie Smith 1-8-1 ATS in games off a win against a foe off
back-to-back losses, it’s time to break out the Trojans. The Lions and the
men from Motown are looking to make a score today!